DrJudite Goncalves

This project aims to generate policy-relevant evidence on how taxing critical minerals and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies (FFS) can support a Just Green Transition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with a focus on Indonesia. While the shift to a low-carbon economy is essential, it risks entrenching inequalities and environmental harms unless well-designed fiscal policies mitigate and compensate for those harms. Indonesia, rich in nickel and other critical minerals essential for clean technologies, faces growing health and ecological risks from mining, while continuing to spend heavily on FFS. Mining taxes and FFS reform offer major revenue potential—but also complex trade-offs. This research will assess how revenues from these fiscal interventions can be redistributed to enhance climate, health, and socioeconomic outcomes. By co-producing policy scenarios with stakeholders and communities, we will identify fair and effective ways to tax/de-subsidise and invest. The project combines stakeholder co-production, policy mapping, impact evaluations, and modelling to produce an open-access policy database, tools for simulating policy impacts, and actionable recommendations. Findings will guide national and local policy in Indonesia and inform fiscal interventions across other transition-critical LMICs.