Emeritus ProfessorKarim Abadir

Karim Abadir is Emeritus Professor of Financial Econometrics at the Business School (Chair of Financial Econometrics 2005-2017). He was in charge of recruiting from March 2006 and Group Head from July 2007 until Sept 2008. He holds a DPhil from Oxford University. His MA (Economics) and BA (Major in Economics, Minor in Business) are from the American University in Cairo. He went to school at the Collège de la Sainte Famille (Jésuites) in Cairo. He has worked as:
1988-92: Lecturer in Economics, Lincoln College, Oxford University.
1992-93: Research Fellow in Economics, American University in Cairo.
1993: Professional diver, Sinai, Egypt.
1993-94: Senior Lecturer in Statistics and Econometrics, University of Exeter.
1994-96: Reader in Econometrics, University of Exeter.
1996-2005: Professor of Econometrics and Statistics (Chair equally split between the Department of Mathematics and the Department of Economics & Related Studies) and Head of the Statistics Group, University of York.

He serves on various editorial boards and was a founding co-editor of the Econometrics Journal. He is credited with having solved in his DPhil a major long-standing problem in Mathematical Statistics and Time Series that was open since the 1950's (the explicit formulae for the distributions of unit-root statistics). New economic models and dynamics, obtained in his publications, led him to predict:
- the timing of the 2008 recession a year in advance, and the different timings of the recoveries in various Western countries (see * below);
- the stagflation of 2021-2022, its seeds in June 2019 on Twitter then in an article invited in summer 2021 in International Banker;
- impending recession in March 2022 on Twitter then, with Prof Gabriel Talmain, summary of forecasts and another warning about central banks' overshooting, both in International Banker.
- the inflation resurgence of early 2025, resulting initially from the increasingly expanding US fiscal-deficit rate, expansion that delayed the US recession in 2023-2024 (after the US technical recession of 2022); see Twitter/X links in the side panel on the left (PC version) or "External links" button at the top (mobile version).

*Earlier references:
- Recession? What Recession?!
(Done on the 7th of March 2008 for the alumni magazine.)
Then:
- A predictable recession, and what to do about it.
- Is the economic crisis over (and out)?
(Used GIPSI instead of PIIGS, since the start of the crisis, and the sequencing turned out to be more accurate.)
- LSE blog: Triple-dip, coming to a town near you...
- Deficit cuts should be postponed (on Swiss financial TV Dukascopy) & subsequent Expert Commentary.
- 2015 Summary on CNBC's Power Lunch and SABC news.
(Regular updates on Twitter/X and LinkedIn.)

Founding member of the liberal party Al Masreyeen Al Ahrrar (translates as Free/Liberal Egyptians), which has been granted Observer (2012) then Full (2014) Membership of Liberal International. Member of its first Political Office (2011-2013) and first Supreme Council (2013-2017). Drafted its economic programme in April 2011 (prior to its launch) and Chair of its Economics Committee September 2011 to March 2013. Chair of the Data Analysis and Information Committee 2011-2012.

Further details are in various editions of Who's Who in the World, Dictionary of International Biography, Cambridge Blue Book. Doctors may be interested in the work of his grandfather, Naguib Pasha Mahfouz.